车市半年考真相:总销量同比跌百万台,国五抛售促6月回暖

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汽车用品

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汽车东西7月9日消息,昨天晚上,联合会公布了2019年6月国内乘用车的生产和销售数据(“乘用车”指的是狭窄的乘用车)。从这些数据中,我们还可以看到上半年乘用车市场的表现。

1 - 6月,国内乘用车产量976.2万台,比去年同期减少190多万台,减少16.3%;综合销量达到995.4万台,比去年同期减少100多万台,下降9.3%。上半年,乘用车的整体产销量仍在下降。

值得注意的是,尽管整体乘用车市场整体销量在上半年逐渐收窄,但制造商乘用车的批发销售仍下降了13.9%。由此可见,自今年年初以来,汽车经销商已开始推出优惠政策,推广“国五”模式。这一举措吸引了许多持有资金购买的消费者,但经销商已经实施了减少库存的策略,因此看来零售销售的下降趋势已经缩小,批发的下降已经扩大。

这种现象在6月份进一步扩大。本月国内乘用车总销量达到176.6万辆,实现正增长,同比增长4.9%,环比增长11.6%。本季度的增长率创下了本世纪6月乘用车销量连续增长的纪录。

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▲数据来自联邦

在新能源市场,6月是补贴过渡期的最后一个月。新能源乘用车销量大幅增加。新能源汽车批发销量13.4万辆,同比增长38.7%,同比增长98.7%。新能源汽车市场已经走出了4月和5月的萎靡不振。

From the first half of the year, the promulgation of the new energy auto subsidy new policy has caused the new energy auto market to be full of twists and turns. The new energy vehicles, which were originally in the off-season of sales, grew rapidly year-on-year. However, the release of the subsidy rules made the sales of new energy vehicles in April and May. The growth was around 18% year-on-year, and the overall performance was flat; however, in June, the last month of the transition period, new energy passenger vehicles broke out, with a year-on-year growth of 98.7%. However, the trend of traditional fuel vehicles is still difficult to get rid of. After the transition to the "National Six" standard, the passenger car market may still be unable to get rid of the shadow of the downside.

1. New energy production and sales continued to decline in the first half of 2019

According to the data released by the Association, the production and sales volume of passenger cars continued to decline in the first half of the year. From January to June, the domestic passenger vehicle output was 9.762 million units, down 16.3% year-on-year. The comprehensive sales volume reached 9.954 million units, down 9.3 points from the previous month. %.

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▲Data comes from the Federation

The decline in sales of different models was also different. Among them, MPV sales fell the most, down 19.2% year-on-year. However, due to the large sales base of SUVs and cars, although it only fell 8.5%, the number of sales decreased by more than 400,000. Judging from the decrease in sales volume, the downturn in the auto market is the biggest car in the market.

At the same time, due to the early release of the "National Six" standard landing signal this year, major automakers and dealers have adopted a "destocking" strategy, that is, through the promotion of means to increase the sales of vehicles, on the one hand through Reduce production and wholesale car purchases to reduce inventory.

xx采取这一策略的结果是2019年上半年乘用车生产和制造商批发销售大幅减少。据协会统计,2019年上半年国内乘用车产量下降16.3%同比,批发销量下降13.9%。经过上半年的调整,各大汽车制造商和经销商“国五”的库存应该已经消化。随着“国六”标准的落地,汽车制造商和经销商逐步取消了“全国五大”销售期的优惠政策,从“去库存”到“补充库存”。

2,6月份有所回升,整体情况不容乐观

虽然6月份乘用车市场在“全国五大”推广下反弹,但同比增长4.9%,环比增长11.6%。然而,总体而言,今年上半年乘用车市场去年的产销量仍有不同程度的下滑。

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▲数据来自联邦

根据过去五年中上半年狭窄乘用车(不包括小客户)市场的销售数据,2019年1月的销售数据可以接受,达到216.2万。然而,2月份的数据在过去五年创下新低,仅售出117.4万。 3月,4月和5月的销售情况波动,但总体情况没有太大改善,仅略高于2015年的销售额。

但是,这种情况在6月迎来了变化。 6月份狭窄乘用车销量达到176.6万辆,比上月增长11.6%。这也是本世纪初6月销量增幅最大的一次。 6月份,这样的乘用车销售旺季可以达到11.6%的增长率,经销商的“全国五大”车型的“清仓大甩卖”在乘用车市场的增长中发挥了巨大作用。

整个上半年,乘用车产量为994.2万辆,同比下降16.1%,销量1013.2万辆,同比下降9.2%,乘用车整体产销持续下滑。随着“国六”标准的正式落地,下半年的乘用车市场也不容乐观。

1,乘用车市场12个月以来首次出现同比正增长

单看6月,乘用车市场呈现回暖趋势,整体综合销量达到176.6万辆,环比增长11.6%,同比增长4.9%。这也是近12个月以来,乘用车市场首次出现同比正增长。不过,“国六”倒计时造成的“国五”车型促销,对于拉动乘用车市场销量应该起到了不小的作用。

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▲数据来自乘联会

按车型销量来分,轿车仍然是最畅销的车型,6月份销量达到88.7万辆。而SUV则紧随其后,卖出了75.7万辆.MPV与微客作为小众车型,销量相对较少,分别为12.2万辆与3.1万辆。

但在增长趋势上,轿车的环比增长却不如MPV与SUV,6月份轿车环比增速10.3%,而MPV与SUV的环比增长分别为13.7%与12.9%。在同比增长方面,SUV车型一马当先,达到了10.5%。

从这一趋势来看,轿车虽然仍是最受欢迎的车型,但随着人们生活水平的提高,对车内空间与舒适度也提出了更高的要求,MPV与SUV出现增长充分地说明了这一点。

2,产量削减经销商整车厂集体“去库存”

而在产量方面,由于需要削减“国五”车辆库存,各大整车厂保持着一定程度的克制,且对受欢迎程度不同的车型在生产数量上做出了调整。

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▲Data comes from the Federation

According to the data of the Federation, the total passenger vehicle output in June was 1.564 million units, a growth of only 6.4% from the previous month and a decrease of 17.6% from the same period last year.

For cars and SUVs with better sales, many manufacturers choose to increase production. The car production in June was 829,000, a month-on-month increase of 6.0%, and the SUV production in June was 660,000, an increase of 9.2%.

For the smaller MPVs and micro-customers in the market, many automakers have reduced the production of these two models. The output of these two models is 76,000 and 23,000 respectively, and the MPV output is down 10.4%. Production fell by 19.3% from the previous month.

However, if compared with the same period last year, the output of all models has dropped. This is because the automakers are cutting the output of the “National Five” model, and the overall output of the month-on-month increase in June depends largely on the entire vehicle. The factory increased the production of the "National Six" model.

3. New energy vehicles are growing rapidly. Pure electricity is more powerful

For the new energy passenger vehicle market, despite the flat period of April and May, the growth momentum in the first half of 2019 is still strong. The sales of new energy passenger vehicles in January-June reached 577,000, an increase of 65.9. %.

Looking at June alone, although it has entered the last month of the subsidy transition period, the manufacturer's new energy wholesale sales volume still reached 134,000 units, an increase of 38.7% from the previous month, an increase of 98.7% year-on-year, dealers and consumers for new energy. The consumption confidence of the car is relatively sufficient, which also shows that the new energy passenger car is gradually getting rid of the dependence on subsidies, and the new energy passenger car market is maturing.

From the perspective of different models, in the pure electric passenger cars in June, the A-class car has the strongest increase, accounting for 58% of the pure electric passenger car increment. Moreover, in the entire new energy vehicle market, pure electric performance was strong, and the mixed mix was not satisfactory, down 8% year-on-year.

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With the maturity of electric vehicle technology, this transitional product is becoming a history, gradually being marginalized, and the investment of domestic independent brands in this field is decreasing. Joint venture vehicles are becoming the core force of plug-in hybrid models.

4. Different car companies have different situations

The situation of different car companies in June is also different. The sales volume of luxury car companies has increased more, up 24.9% year-on-year. The mainstream joint venture brand has increased by 9.1%. The self-owned brands can't get rid of the dilemma of sales decline, down 8.3% year-on-year. It was hard work in June.

Third, the joint venture car enterprise is still the protagonist of the passenger car market in June

If you focus on the top ten retail sales in June, you will find that the joint venture car company is still the protagonist of this car market. The joint venture car enterprises occupy 8 seats in the top ten car companies, and only two independent car companies respectively Ranked in the sixth and ninth positions.

According to the sales volume of different car companies, the top ten car companies in June can be divided into two echelons. The top five sales are over 100,000 units, ranking first in the echelon. The last five sales are in the 100,000 units. The second echelon.

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▲Data comes from the Federation

Among them, FAW-Volkswagen and SAIC Volkswagen firmly occupied the top two passenger car sales rankings, respectively, sold 175,000 and 156,000, and Volkswagen models still have a good market in China.

The third and fourth places are SAIC-GM and SAIC-GM-Wuling, respectively, with sales of 134,000 and 111,000 respectively. Dongfeng Nissan is ranked fifth in sales, with sales of 110,600, which is not much different from the fourth.

Although FAW-Volkswagen ranks first in sales, SAIC has occupied three seats in the top five. In terms of total sales, SAIC is still the domestic leader.

xxGeely Automobile has developed rapidly recently. Some time ago, the new car Bo Yue Pro and GKUI 19 vehicle system were released. From the current stage, Geely is struggling to catch up with the joint venture brand.

In contrast, Changan Automobile's situation is not optimistic, and its sales gap with the tenth is not large, and the sales of the company's joint venture brand Changan Ford and its own brand Changan Automobile have all declined. If you can't turn things around, you may fall out of the top ten in the passenger car sales rankings.

However, in the number of dealers wholesalers, the wholesale volume of FAW-Volkswagen was overtaken by SAIC Volkswagen. On the one hand, this reflects the stronger market consumer confidence of SAIC Volkswagen models. On the other hand, it also reflects that FAW-Volkswagen dealers need to “de-stock” more, so the wholesale volume is smaller.

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▲Data comes from the Federation

Conclusion: The car market is picking up or is a flash in the future

In fact, the improvement of the passenger car market in June has been expected by many industry insiders, and the variables are nothing more than a gradual decline or a positive growth. The “National Five” model was almost once a week in June, and the promotion of the passenger car market was visible to the naked eye.

For dealers and OEMs, such “clear inventory” behavior, whether it is cost loss or brand damage, is not small, but many dealers have already adjusted the price of series models at the end of June. To some extent, it has saved the brand's injuries.

With the landing of the "National Six" standard, the passenger car market may continue to show a downward trend, and the June car market may be a short-lived.

xx然而,这并不都是坏消息。新能源乘用车逐渐摆脱补贴并进入市场。在补贴过渡期结束时,新能源乘用车仍然实现同比增长98.7%。汽车销售值得期待。从乘用车市场来看,用新能源汽车取代传统燃料汽车已经是不可逆转的趋势。